In Trading Routine and Psychology

Regular followers of this site may or may not already be aware of the fact that we have had, in our existence a very good friend for quite some time.  Since my early days of “going solo” I have known and eventually become good friends with an independent provider of research materials geared towards everything in regards to pivot trading.  His site, PivotFarm, has taken off in popularity over the years and I wanted to simply put together a post outlining what he does and help raise some awareness for his ongoing work.

Every day, sheets are released outlining key pivot levels. The bread and butter of his service comes through the use of his “PowerZones”. The means and methods of calculating pivots can be mind-numbing, but PivotFarm takes the information and essentially consolidates it in order to shed light on areas of extreme confluence, which can act as severe reactionary points for price.  These areas can be forthcoming or previous heavy dealing zones that essentially stall price in its tracks based on very traditional concepts.

Markets covered daily include the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, Gold and Oil.

Explained below: (“Creating an Edge with Technical Confluence”)

“Most if not at all traders, be they day, swing or buy and holders have come across technical analysis. You know what I’m talking about! Those squiggly lines all the gurus seem to have on their charts! They consist of patterns like the famous ‘Head and Shoulders’, age old equations seen across nature like ‘Fibonacci’, even historic wave movements measured by ‘Elliott Wave’.

As great as the names may sound, most if not all these methods and the many others boil down to one key technical principle ‘Support and Resistance’. Support levels are where demand overtakes supply and Resistance levels are where supply overtakes demand. Most technical analysis methods serve the single purpose of helping traders identify Support and/or Resistance, however the areas these methods predict can vary from method to method.

Within the technical analysis group are two subgroups we call Proactive and Reactive. Proactive technical analysis methods are based upon a calculation derived from price and include Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, Pivot Points and Trend lines and in many cases identify Support and Resistance areas where price has never been before. These methods are predictive based upon the cyclical nature of markets and use this nature to highlight potential areas of price inflection.
Reactive technical analysis methods are the polar opposite they are derived directly from price action and include Price swing highs/lows, Volume profile and Open Gaps. These methods are based upon the direct action of price, levels that were actually traded be it yesterday or 30 years ago. Reactive technical analysis relies upon ‘market memory’ that traders will recognize or respect past areas of price inflection.

Now following on from this logic, if most technical analysis methods are used to identify Support and Resistance, why are there so many different methods? Well one of the main reasons for these adaptations is market personality; the market can go through many distinct personalities or phases. This is why a trading style that’s been profitable for you for the last 3 months may become a loser now that the market ‘phase’ has changed. Markets can go through bullish, bearish, sideways, high volatility, low volatility and every other phase in between.

The Schizophrenic nature of evolving market environments mean that in given phases certain types of technical analysis work better than others. This is where the concept of technical confluence can offer a great edge. Technical confluence much like a rope consisting of multiple strands is the combining and intertwining of multiple technical analysis methods both Proactive and Reactive to create a ‘community’ view. This community view includes ‘market memory’ (reactive) and a cycle based prediction (proactive), these 2 analysis groups offer great insight and confirmation for the savvy trader.

So practically what does this mean? Say for example we analyze an S&P chart using a few of these methods and find a 50% Fibonacci retrace at 1312.00, a price swing low at 1312.75 and a Volume peak at 1312.50. Based upon the confluence of these methods and the differing trading groups who will be viewing that area, the odds of a reversal in the 1312.00-1313.00 area are stacked in our favor.

Why does this work? Combining multiple methods means combining multiple groups of traders, so more ‘eyes’ on that area. Furthermore the combination and confirmation from multiple methods both reactive and proactive helps traders adapt to changing market phases with more confidence. Probably the most important reason to use Technical Confluence is the dreaded P-word ‘Psychology’. Technical confluence as a psychological edge cannot be emphasized enough, if you are confident and firm in your reasoning for a trade you are much more likely to manage that trade to fruition.”

Pivotsheet example for GBP/USD:

gbpusd

Click here to to visit the site


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