Staples would love me for putting up this picture.
Looking at price action tonight, we’re seeing a somewhat difficult zone here, particularly on GBP, EUR and CHF that is going to require a breakout (in trader words, ‘patience’) before we get very good trades. Still, some good short term prospects in the immediate area.
As usual, I’m compelled to stay with the trend for the time being, though a correction or more likely, consolidation, is not to be ruled out. We just saw some massive runs in the past two days and price is likely to ‘breathe’ on these kinds of moves. Global growth concerns are weighing down equities, thus carry trades, and not much coming in terms of improvement. Earnings are going on all week and so far major are taking some big beatings.
Kiwi reduced its rate tonight by 1% – cuts like this keep plugging the idea in trader’s heads that other countries will keep on plugging away and doing the same; EUR is the next big target, of course.
Oil is tanking and is floating in our 66 target range from yesterday. More risk coming off. Many analysts are looking for 50 bucks a barrel in the time to come.
Gold performed as expected as well – still looking for the 600’s as the dollar keeps on going.
Dollar index coming up on 87.00 – just looking for that to get hit and possibly see a reaction (retracement).
Re: Eur and Gbp:
I’m still much more comfortable selling rallies for the time being. We’re getting a pullback tonight on overextension and what has become a beat up downtrend. Selling will come easier than buys. There are a lot of bumps in this downtrend; many of which are potential trades if price moves higher Reverse for CHF – just remember the basics: bigger timeframe, more significance; take the easy ones.
Staying with the trend here as well and selling rallies– risk is still coming off the table and looking for a breakout of the last bottom (95.75). We’ve been tugging along at a rare pace though and looking at a minor correction as I write.
GBP has sells at 1.6500 area, 1.6673, 1.6830-1.6860 area, 1.6950 buys at 1.5850 (50% of monthly wave), 1.5610
EUR has sells at 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3140, 1.3180, 1.3255, 1.3280 buys at buys at 1.2680, 1.2460
CHF has buys at 1.1562, 1.1500, 1.1470, 1.1378, sells at 1.1785, 1.1893
JPY has sells at 98.70, 99.25, 99.92-100.00, 101.35, buys at 95.75, 93.90, 87.85