In Forex and Futures Commentary

New site, new format tonight. I know you’ll like it better, so here we go:

Main points:

-EUR got slammed yesterday after Trechet said the words “economic growth is slowing” – before that we were getting long – anytime he grabs the microphone it seems its usually bad, bad news for EUR. Rate UNCH.

– US NonFarm Payrolls and the $700bb decision are looming for tomorrow. Right now, nobody’s happy. US lost 4% today, London lost 1.8% and Europe about 1.3%. UJ and other carry pairs are more sells. After seeing this move today I don’t think even this bailout will turn the tides. Maybe some short term optimism; its one of those “have to wait and see”s.

-EUR, NZD GBP, AUD, etc I’m looking for a correction to continue up again tonight, but don’t mind selling into strength.

-Gold has now fallen back, flipping things here for the time being – more pressure on USD (buying).

-Crude keeps dropping; 84 is the next target

-In the world of options there is, believe it or not, a good amount of exposure to the upside (against USD, long EURUSD, etc.). Most put options are already in the money and not many lined up for lower strikes than where the spot price is now.

-Demand for USD still high in general and most analysts looking for buys at better levels

So after all that, here are some levels for now:

EUR – has sells at 1.3925, 1.4000-1.4010, 1.4125
GBP – has sells at 1.7770-17800, 1.7865, 1.7958, 1.8115
CHF – buys at 1.1250, 1.1150,
JPY – sells at 106.30, 106.50, 107.00, buys at 104.50, 103.55
AUD – sells at .7865, .7930, buys at .7675 and .7570
EJ – sells at 147.50, 149.20, buys at 144.20

A word to the wise about these numbers – these are just basic areas like the ones we discuss all the time, just as I look at them on an intraday basis. Using them is another story. I might or might not take trades off of them, based on any number of factors. Again, my best free news source to stay up to date is the news feed on Oanda from IFR. You get all the rumors and tons of valuable research. I also listen to Bloomberg and keep on top of what’s moving things around.
Have a great weekend,
Steve

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