There's always something out there that makes sense form a technical perspective, and if you go back in our posts you'll see some clear signs of consistency when it comes to some of these seemingly obscure movements.
EUR/USD is simply trapped today, and the next steps can be outlined by some of the more common guidelines we follow.
First, the horrors:
– GDP forecasts for Q1 continue to show signs of a recession (under 2% GDP growth is the widely accepted form),
– DOWNGRADES for many EU nations seen on the horizon, with 1, perhaps 2 notches lower seen coming across the board,
– And need we mention the prevailing uncertainty over how and when the money required by the EU get there in the first place and who will be held accountable, because what has been done to this point a la the EFSF, simply is not enough.
And in terms of positivity:
– Well, thankfully, Germany is still a member of the EU.
If there is anything that kept this pair afloat today (and risk across the board in general) its the fact that Italian, Spanish and Belgian 10-yr bond yields went lower by about 20-22bps, spearheaded by a decent Spanish bond auction. We're also starting to float the psychological, not technical, 1.3000 handle. At some point, price will “goodbye”.
Below I marked up a couple of our favorite short term technical moves here, and they're all standard by our senses. The market awaits serious catalyst. Tomorrow we say hello to US CPI and I'm sure a string of other rumors and detrimental information hitting the wires about the Eurozone, so stick to your feed and just trust your instincts; it's a slippery slope.